Abstract
Most statistical analyses use hypothesis tests or estimation about parameters to form inferential conclusions. I think this is noble, but misguided. The point of view expressed here is that observables are fundamental, and that the goal of statistical modeling should be to predict future observations, given the current data and other relevant information. Further, the prediction of future observables provides multiple advantages to practicing scientists, and to science in general. These include an interpretable numerical summary of a quantity of direct interest to current and future researchers, a calibrated prediction of what’s likely to happen in future experiments, a prediction that can be either “corroborated” or “refuted” through experimentation, and avoidance of inference about parameters; quantities that exists only as convenient indices of hypothetical distributions. Finally, the predictive probability of a future observable can be used as a standard for communicating the reliability of the current work, regardless of whether confirmatory experiments are conducted. Adoption of this paradigm would improve our rigor for scientific accuracy and reproducibility by shifting our focus from “finding differences” among hypothetical parameters to predicting observable events based on our current scientific understanding.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 291-295 |
| Number of pages | 5 |
| Journal | American Statistician |
| Volume | 73 |
| Issue number | sup1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Mar 29 2019 |
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Keywords
- Observables
- Prediction
- Predictive distribution
- Scientific inference
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Statistics and Probability
- Mathematics(all)
- Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
Cite this
Predictive Inference and Scientific Reproducibility. / Billheimer, David D.
In: American Statistician, Vol. 73, No. sup1, 29.03.2019, p. 291-295.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Predictive Inference and Scientific Reproducibility
AU - Billheimer, David D
PY - 2019/3/29
Y1 - 2019/3/29
N2 - Most statistical analyses use hypothesis tests or estimation about parameters to form inferential conclusions. I think this is noble, but misguided. The point of view expressed here is that observables are fundamental, and that the goal of statistical modeling should be to predict future observations, given the current data and other relevant information. Further, the prediction of future observables provides multiple advantages to practicing scientists, and to science in general. These include an interpretable numerical summary of a quantity of direct interest to current and future researchers, a calibrated prediction of what’s likely to happen in future experiments, a prediction that can be either “corroborated” or “refuted” through experimentation, and avoidance of inference about parameters; quantities that exists only as convenient indices of hypothetical distributions. Finally, the predictive probability of a future observable can be used as a standard for communicating the reliability of the current work, regardless of whether confirmatory experiments are conducted. Adoption of this paradigm would improve our rigor for scientific accuracy and reproducibility by shifting our focus from “finding differences” among hypothetical parameters to predicting observable events based on our current scientific understanding.
AB - Most statistical analyses use hypothesis tests or estimation about parameters to form inferential conclusions. I think this is noble, but misguided. The point of view expressed here is that observables are fundamental, and that the goal of statistical modeling should be to predict future observations, given the current data and other relevant information. Further, the prediction of future observables provides multiple advantages to practicing scientists, and to science in general. These include an interpretable numerical summary of a quantity of direct interest to current and future researchers, a calibrated prediction of what’s likely to happen in future experiments, a prediction that can be either “corroborated” or “refuted” through experimentation, and avoidance of inference about parameters; quantities that exists only as convenient indices of hypothetical distributions. Finally, the predictive probability of a future observable can be used as a standard for communicating the reliability of the current work, regardless of whether confirmatory experiments are conducted. Adoption of this paradigm would improve our rigor for scientific accuracy and reproducibility by shifting our focus from “finding differences” among hypothetical parameters to predicting observable events based on our current scientific understanding.
KW - Observables
KW - Prediction
KW - Predictive distribution
KW - Scientific inference
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85063204638&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85063204638&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/00031305.2018.1518270
DO - 10.1080/00031305.2018.1518270
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85063204638
VL - 73
SP - 291
EP - 295
JO - American Statistician
JF - American Statistician
SN - 0003-1305
IS - sup1
ER -