Projection of climate change influences on U.S. West nile virus vectors

Heidi E Brown, Alex Young, Joceline C Lega, Theodore G. Andreadis, Jessica Schurich, Andrew Comrie

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. This study describes a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vectorborne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species-specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, this study estimates mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location; however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, midsummer decreases in abundance may be offset by shorter extrinsic incubation periods, resulting in a greater proportion of infective mosquitoes. Quantitative descriptions of the effect of temperature on the virus and mosquito are critical to developing models of future disease risk.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalEarth Interactions
Volume19
Issue number18
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015

Fingerprint

West Nile virus
mosquito
climate change
health care
simulation
population dynamics
virus
temperature
incubation
weather
mortality
climate

Keywords

  • Disease
  • Ecological models
  • Ecological models
  • Local effects

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Cite this

Projection of climate change influences on U.S. West nile virus vectors. / Brown, Heidi E; Young, Alex; Lega, Joceline C; Andreadis, Theodore G.; Schurich, Jessica; Comrie, Andrew.

In: Earth Interactions, Vol. 19, No. 18, 2015.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Brown, Heidi E ; Young, Alex ; Lega, Joceline C ; Andreadis, Theodore G. ; Schurich, Jessica ; Comrie, Andrew. / Projection of climate change influences on U.S. West nile virus vectors. In: Earth Interactions. 2015 ; Vol. 19, No. 18.
@article{3caf71847299499aadeb129e71a2d4f9,
title = "Projection of climate change influences on U.S. West nile virus vectors",
abstract = "While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. This study describes a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vectorborne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species-specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, this study estimates mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location; however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, midsummer decreases in abundance may be offset by shorter extrinsic incubation periods, resulting in a greater proportion of infective mosquitoes. Quantitative descriptions of the effect of temperature on the virus and mosquito are critical to developing models of future disease risk.",
keywords = "Disease, Ecological models, Ecological models, Local effects",
author = "Brown, {Heidi E} and Alex Young and Lega, {Joceline C} and Andreadis, {Theodore G.} and Jessica Schurich and Andrew Comrie",
year = "2015",
doi = "10.1175/EI-D-15-0008.1",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "19",
journal = "Earth Interactions",
issn = "1087-3562",
publisher = "American Meteorological Society",
number = "18",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Projection of climate change influences on U.S. West nile virus vectors

AU - Brown, Heidi E

AU - Young, Alex

AU - Lega, Joceline C

AU - Andreadis, Theodore G.

AU - Schurich, Jessica

AU - Comrie, Andrew

PY - 2015

Y1 - 2015

N2 - While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. This study describes a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vectorborne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species-specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, this study estimates mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location; however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, midsummer decreases in abundance may be offset by shorter extrinsic incubation periods, resulting in a greater proportion of infective mosquitoes. Quantitative descriptions of the effect of temperature on the virus and mosquito are critical to developing models of future disease risk.

AB - While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. This study describes a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vectorborne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species-specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, this study estimates mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location; however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, midsummer decreases in abundance may be offset by shorter extrinsic incubation periods, resulting in a greater proportion of infective mosquitoes. Quantitative descriptions of the effect of temperature on the virus and mosquito are critical to developing models of future disease risk.

KW - Disease

KW - Ecological models

KW - Ecological models

KW - Local effects

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84949921098&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84949921098&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1175/EI-D-15-0008.1

DO - 10.1175/EI-D-15-0008.1

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84949921098

VL - 19

JO - Earth Interactions

JF - Earth Interactions

SN - 1087-3562

IS - 18

ER -