Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries

Yu Liu, Kim M. Cobb, Huiming Song, Qiang Li, Ching Yao Li, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Zhisheng An, Weijian Zhou, Qiufang Cai, Jinbao Li, Steven W. Leavitt, Changfeng Sun, Ruochen Mei, Chuan Chou Shen, Ming Hsun Chan, Junyan Sun, Libin Yan, Ying Lei, Yongyong Ma, Xuxiang Li & 2 others Deliang Chen, Hans W. Linderholm

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

Abstract

The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies.

LanguageEnglish (US)
Article number15386
JournalNature Communications
Volume8
DOIs
StatePublished - May 30 2017

Fingerprint

el Nino
augmentation
El Nino-Southern Oscillation
Temperature
sea surface temperature
Oceans and Seas
greenhouses
Greenhouses
Greenhouse gases
Cellulose
Time series
Oxygen
Southern Oscillation
Taiwan
cellulose
climate
intervals
trends
oxygen
gases

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Chemistry(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

Cite this

Liu, Y., Cobb, K. M., Song, H., Li, Q., Li, C. Y., Nakatsuka, T., ... Linderholm, H. W. (2017). Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries. Nature Communications, 8, [15386]. DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15386

Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries. / Liu, Yu; Cobb, Kim M.; Song, Huiming; Li, Qiang; Li, Ching Yao; Nakatsuka, Takeshi; An, Zhisheng; Zhou, Weijian; Cai, Qiufang; Li, Jinbao; Leavitt, Steven W.; Sun, Changfeng; Mei, Ruochen; Shen, Chuan Chou; Chan, Ming Hsun; Sun, Junyan; Yan, Libin; Lei, Ying; Ma, Yongyong; Li, Xuxiang; Chen, Deliang; Linderholm, Hans W.

In: Nature Communications, Vol. 8, 15386, 30.05.2017.

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

Liu, Y, Cobb, KM, Song, H, Li, Q, Li, CY, Nakatsuka, T, An, Z, Zhou, W, Cai, Q, Li, J, Leavitt, SW, Sun, C, Mei, R, Shen, CC, Chan, MH, Sun, J, Yan, L, Lei, Y, Ma, Y, Li, X, Chen, D & Linderholm, HW 2017, 'Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries' Nature Communications, vol 8, 15386. DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15386
Liu Y, Cobb KM, Song H, Li Q, Li CY, Nakatsuka T et al. Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries. Nature Communications. 2017 May 30;8. 15386. Available from, DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15386
Liu, Yu ; Cobb, Kim M. ; Song, Huiming ; Li, Qiang ; Li, Ching Yao ; Nakatsuka, Takeshi ; An, Zhisheng ; Zhou, Weijian ; Cai, Qiufang ; Li, Jinbao ; Leavitt, Steven W. ; Sun, Changfeng ; Mei, Ruochen ; Shen, Chuan Chou ; Chan, Ming Hsun ; Sun, Junyan ; Yan, Libin ; Lei, Ying ; Ma, Yongyong ; Li, Xuxiang ; Chen, Deliang ; Linderholm, Hans W./ Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries. In: Nature Communications. 2017 ; Vol. 8.
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abstract = "The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies.",
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