Regional and seasonal response of a West Nile virus vector to climate change

Cory W. Morin, Andrew C. Comrie

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

58 Scopus citations

Abstract

Climate change will affect the abundance and seasonality of West Nile virus (WNV) vectors, altering the risk of virus transmission to humans. Using downscaled general circulation model output, we calculate a WNV vector's response to climate change across the southern United States using process-based modeling. In the eastern United States, Culex quinquefasciatus response to projected climate change displays a latitudinal and elevational gradient. Projected summer population depressions as a result of increased immature mortality and habitat drying are most severe in the south and almost absent further north; extended spring and fall survival is ubiquitous. Much of California also exhibits a bimodal pattern. Projected onset of mosquito season is delayed in the southwestern United States because of extremely dry and hot spring and summers; however, increased temperature and late summer and fall rains extend the mosquito season. These results are unique in being a broad-scale calculation of the projected impacts of climate change on a WNV vector. The results show that, despite projected widespread future warming, the future seasonal response of C. Quinquefasciatus populations across the southern United States will not be homogeneous, and will depend on specific combinations of local and regional conditions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)15620-15625
Number of pages6
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume110
Issue number39
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 24 2013

Keywords

  • Disease
  • Ecology
  • Insect

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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