Regionalization of constraints on expected watershed response behavior for improved predictions in ungauged basins

Maitreya Yadav, Thorsten Wagener, Hoshin Gupta

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

330 Scopus citations

Abstract

Approaches to modeling the continuous hydrologic response of ungauged basins use observable physical characteristics of watersheds to either directly infer values for the parameters of hydrologic models, or to establish regression relationships between watershed structure and model parameters. Both these approaches still have widely discussed limitations, including impacts of model structural uncertainty. In this paper we introduce an alternative, model independent, approach to streamflow prediction in ungauged basins based on empirical evidence of relationships between watershed structure, climate and watershed response behavior. Instead of directly estimating values for model parameters, different hydrologic response behaviors of the watershed, quantified through model independent streamflow indices, are estimated and subsequently regionalized in an uncertainty framework. This results in expected ranges of streamflow indices in ungauged watersheds. A pilot study using 30 UK watersheds shows how this regionalized information can be used to constrain ensemble predictions of any model at ungauged sites. Dominant controlling characteristics were found to be climate (wetness index), watershed topography (slope), and hydrogeology. Main streamflow indices were high pulse count, runoff ratio, and the slope of the flow duration curve. This new approach provided sharp and reliable predictions of continuous streamflow at the ungauged sites tested.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1756-1774
Number of pages19
JournalAdvances in Water Resources
Volume30
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 2007

Keywords

  • Catchment classification
  • Predictions in ungauged basins
  • Rainfall-runoff modeling
  • Regionalization
  • Streamflow indices
  • Uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology

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