Requiem for the fixed-transition-probability migrant

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13 Scopus citations


Net migration rates are conceptually unsound because their denominators are not true "at-risk' populations. Fixed interregional transition probabilities are inconsistent with a sound behavioral representation of migration system dynamics. Whereas such stationary Markov models posit a role for shifting origin region populations, they do not embed the assumptions intrinsic to gravity or opportunity model concepts about the role of changing destination region populations. This paper explores alternative, more behaviorally pleasing interregional models that posit a role for shifting destination populations in altering the attractiveness of migration alternatives. Destiny-dampened, destination-population-weighted transition probability structures are explored. The importance of modelling intraregional migration separately from nonmovement is stressed. -from Author

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)211-223
Number of pages13
JournalGeographical Analysis
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 1993
Externally publishedYes


ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development

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