Salinity-intrusion forecasting system for gambia river estuary

John C. Risley, Phillip Guertin, Martin M. Fogel

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A methodology is presented for forecasting the response of salinity movement in a tidal estuary to seasonal rainfall and freshwater inflows. The forecasting procedure uses linked stochastic and deterministic models to provide information to aid decision makers. These models include: (1) Multisite stochastic rainfall data generation models used to generate long-term synthetic records of 10-day rainfall for stations in the upper river basin; (2) a deterministic rainfall-runoff multiple regression model used to compute a long-term record of 10-day mean flow on the river’s main stem based on real-time initial flow and rainfall data and synthetic rainfall records; and (3) a one-dimensional finite difference salinity intrusion model used to compute the movement of the 1 part per thousand (ppt) salinity level for each year of the computed long-term flow record. A cumulative probability distribution of the maximum salinity flushing distances along the estuary is developed as a tool for decision makers. The Gambia estuary in West Africa was used as a case study.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)339-352
Number of pages14
JournalJournal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume119
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - 1993

Fingerprint

Gambia
Estuaries
Rain
Rivers
river
estuary
salinity
rainfall
decision maker
West Africa
Runoff
flushing
Catchments
Probability distributions
multiple regression
aid
inflow
river basin
regression
stem

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Engineering(all)
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
  • Environmental Science(all)

Cite this

Salinity-intrusion forecasting system for gambia river estuary. / Risley, John C.; Guertin, Phillip; Fogel, Martin M.

In: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 119, No. 3, 1993, p. 339-352.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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