Sensitivity of Spring Phenology to Warming Across Temporal and Spatial Climate Gradients in Two Independent Databases

Benjamin I. Cook, Elizabeth M. Wolkovich, T. Jonathan Davies, Toby R. Ault, Julio L. Betancourt, Jenica M. Allen, Kjell Bolmgren, Elsa E. Cleland, Theresa M Crimmins, Nathan J B Kraft, Lesley T. Lancaster, Susan J. Mazer, Gregory J. McCabe, Brian J. McGill, Camille Parmesan, Stephanie Pau, James Regetz, Nicolas Salamin, Mark D. Schwartz, Steven E. Travers

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

44 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One-PEP725-has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other-NECTAR-includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and under-sampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal mid-latitudes.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1283-1294
Number of pages12
JournalEcosystems
Volume15
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - 2012

Fingerprint

phenology
warming
Biodiversity
climate
species diversity
flowering
seasonality
Temperature
species richness
temperature
value added
Monitoring
tropical forests
tropical forest
deserts
Northern Hemisphere
desert
prediction
monitoring

Keywords

  • climate change
  • climate responders
  • NECTAR
  • PEP725
  • phenology
  • sensitivity

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Ecology
  • Environmental Chemistry

Cite this

Cook, B. I., Wolkovich, E. M., Davies, T. J., Ault, T. R., Betancourt, J. L., Allen, J. M., ... Travers, S. E. (2012). Sensitivity of Spring Phenology to Warming Across Temporal and Spatial Climate Gradients in Two Independent Databases. Ecosystems, 15(8), 1283-1294. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-012-9584-5

Sensitivity of Spring Phenology to Warming Across Temporal and Spatial Climate Gradients in Two Independent Databases. / Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Ault, Toby R.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Allen, Jenica M.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Cleland, Elsa E.; Crimmins, Theresa M; Kraft, Nathan J B; Lancaster, Lesley T.; Mazer, Susan J.; McCabe, Gregory J.; McGill, Brian J.; Parmesan, Camille; Pau, Stephanie; Regetz, James; Salamin, Nicolas; Schwartz, Mark D.; Travers, Steven E.

In: Ecosystems, Vol. 15, No. 8, 2012, p. 1283-1294.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Cook, BI, Wolkovich, EM, Davies, TJ, Ault, TR, Betancourt, JL, Allen, JM, Bolmgren, K, Cleland, EE, Crimmins, TM, Kraft, NJB, Lancaster, LT, Mazer, SJ, McCabe, GJ, McGill, BJ, Parmesan, C, Pau, S, Regetz, J, Salamin, N, Schwartz, MD & Travers, SE 2012, 'Sensitivity of Spring Phenology to Warming Across Temporal and Spatial Climate Gradients in Two Independent Databases', Ecosystems, vol. 15, no. 8, pp. 1283-1294. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-012-9584-5
Cook, Benjamin I. ; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M. ; Davies, T. Jonathan ; Ault, Toby R. ; Betancourt, Julio L. ; Allen, Jenica M. ; Bolmgren, Kjell ; Cleland, Elsa E. ; Crimmins, Theresa M ; Kraft, Nathan J B ; Lancaster, Lesley T. ; Mazer, Susan J. ; McCabe, Gregory J. ; McGill, Brian J. ; Parmesan, Camille ; Pau, Stephanie ; Regetz, James ; Salamin, Nicolas ; Schwartz, Mark D. ; Travers, Steven E. / Sensitivity of Spring Phenology to Warming Across Temporal and Spatial Climate Gradients in Two Independent Databases. In: Ecosystems. 2012 ; Vol. 15, No. 8. pp. 1283-1294.
@article{9ddfbde16b7d48daa37cedef7624bf12,
title = "Sensitivity of Spring Phenology to Warming Across Temporal and Spatial Climate Gradients in Two Independent Databases",
abstract = "Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One-PEP725-has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other-NECTAR-includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and under-sampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal mid-latitudes.",
keywords = "climate change, climate responders, NECTAR, PEP725, phenology, sensitivity",
author = "Cook, {Benjamin I.} and Wolkovich, {Elizabeth M.} and Davies, {T. Jonathan} and Ault, {Toby R.} and Betancourt, {Julio L.} and Allen, {Jenica M.} and Kjell Bolmgren and Cleland, {Elsa E.} and Crimmins, {Theresa M} and Kraft, {Nathan J B} and Lancaster, {Lesley T.} and Mazer, {Susan J.} and McCabe, {Gregory J.} and McGill, {Brian J.} and Camille Parmesan and Stephanie Pau and James Regetz and Nicolas Salamin and Schwartz, {Mark D.} and Travers, {Steven E.}",
year = "2012",
doi = "10.1007/s10021-012-9584-5",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "15",
pages = "1283--1294",
journal = "Ecosystems",
issn = "1432-9840",
publisher = "Springer New York",
number = "8",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Sensitivity of Spring Phenology to Warming Across Temporal and Spatial Climate Gradients in Two Independent Databases

AU - Cook, Benjamin I.

AU - Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.

AU - Davies, T. Jonathan

AU - Ault, Toby R.

AU - Betancourt, Julio L.

AU - Allen, Jenica M.

AU - Bolmgren, Kjell

AU - Cleland, Elsa E.

AU - Crimmins, Theresa M

AU - Kraft, Nathan J B

AU - Lancaster, Lesley T.

AU - Mazer, Susan J.

AU - McCabe, Gregory J.

AU - McGill, Brian J.

AU - Parmesan, Camille

AU - Pau, Stephanie

AU - Regetz, James

AU - Salamin, Nicolas

AU - Schwartz, Mark D.

AU - Travers, Steven E.

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One-PEP725-has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other-NECTAR-includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and under-sampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal mid-latitudes.

AB - Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One-PEP725-has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other-NECTAR-includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and under-sampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal mid-latitudes.

KW - climate change

KW - climate responders

KW - NECTAR

KW - PEP725

KW - phenology

KW - sensitivity

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84870623852&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84870623852&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s10021-012-9584-5

DO - 10.1007/s10021-012-9584-5

M3 - Article

VL - 15

SP - 1283

EP - 1294

JO - Ecosystems

JF - Ecosystems

SN - 1432-9840

IS - 8

ER -