@article{0d20fec91d9049d8b92a1ce26c3c99db,
title = "Short-Term Forecasts of Insect Phenology Inform Pest Management",
abstract = "Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure, and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. In 2018, the U.S. National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) released a suite of 'Pheno Forecast' map products relevant to science and management. The Pheno Forecasts include real-time maps and short-term forecasts of insect pest activity at management-relevant spatial and temporal resolutions and are based on accumulated temperature thresholds associated with critical life-cycle stages of economically important pests. Pheno Forecasts indicate, for a specified day, the status of the insect's target life-cycle stage in real time across the contiguous United States. The maps are available for 12 pest species including the invasive emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire [Coleoptera: Buprestidae]), hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand), and gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar Linnaeus [Lepidoptera: Erebidae]). Preliminary validation based on in-situ observations for hemlock woolly adelgid egg and nymph stages in 2018 indicated the maps to be ≥93% accurate depending on phenophase. Since their release in early 2018, these maps have been adopted by tree care specialists and foresters across the United States. Using a consultative mode of engagement, USA-NPN staff have continuously sought input and critique of the maps and delivery from end users. Based on feedback received, maps have been expanded and modified to include additional species, improved descriptions of the phenophase event of interest, and e-mail-based notifications to support management decisions.",
keywords = "forecasting, insect pests, management, phenology",
author = "Crimmins, {Theresa M.} and Gerst, {Katharine L.} and Huerta, {Diego G.} and Marsh, {R. Lee} and Posthumus, {Erin E.} and Rosemartin, {Alyssa H.} and Jeff Switzer and Weltzin, {Jake F.} and Len Coop and Nicholas Dietschler and Herms, {Daniel A.} and Samita Limbu and Trotter, {R. Talbot} and Mark Whitmore and Kevin Macaluso",
note = "Funding Information: Pheno Forecast maps are generated, maintained, and delivered by the USA-NPN, in collaboration with stakeholders and experts in the field. The USA-NPN is funded primarily by the U.S. Geological Survey, rather than through short-term grants. Accordingly, the infrastructure supporting these maps has increased permanence over projects funded for shorter durations. Funding Information: We are thankful to the many individuals who have shared their time, talents, and expertise with us to define and improve the Pheno Forecast map products, including Matt Ayres, John Bowers, Gericke Cook, Ellen Denny, Joe Elkington, Dan Hofer, Nina Laney, Jeff Morisette, Marion Murray, Casey Reese, Tawny Siminsky, Peter Warren, and Aaron Weed. We also thank those individuals who helped to shape the foundational GDD map products, including Jason Courter, Mike Crimmins, and Bill Monahan. We thank individuals that shaped and supported our stakeholder engagement efforts, including Carrie Brown-Lima, Carolyn Enquist, and Toni Lyn Morelli. Finally, we gratefully acknowledge the input of three anonymous reviewers and John Foster whose input helped to improve this manuscript. The project described in this publication was supported by Cooperative Agreement Number G14AC00405 and G18AC00135 from the U.S. Geological Survey, two U.S. Geological Survey Community for Data Integration grants, and by the Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. government. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2020.",
year = "2020",
month = mar,
day = "18",
doi = "10.1093/aesa/saz026",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "113",
pages = "139--148",
journal = "Annals of the Entomological Society of America",
issn = "0013-8746",
publisher = "Entomological Society of America",
number = "2",
}