Sierra San Pedro Mártir, Baja California, cool-season precipitation reconstructed from earlywood width of Abies concolor tree rings

David Meko, Ramzi Touchan, J. Villanueva Díaz, D. Griffin, Connie Woodhouse, Christopher Castro, C. Carillo, Steven Leavitt

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Tree ring data are analyzed for a multicentury record of drought history in the Sierra San Pedro Mártir (SSPM) of Baja California, Mexico. Climatic variation in the study area is of particular interest because the SSPM is a rich biotic environment at the southern limit of the California floristic province and the southern limit of the planetary jet stream. Future shifts in the jet stream would be expected to have amplified effect on this marginal environment. The study applies linear regression to tree ring indices of earlywood-width of Abies concolor to estimate a 353 year (1658-2010 C.E.) record of cool-season (October-April) precipitation, P, in SSPM. Time-nested regression models account for more than half the variance of grid point P in calibration periods of length 50-65 years. Cross-spectral analysis indicates strong tracking of observed P by the reconstruction over a broad range of frequencies. Robustness of the reconstruction is supported by synchrony of reconstructed P with tree ring variations in other tree species from SSPM. The reconstruction emphasizes the severity of the 1950s drought in a long-term context and the single-year intensity of droughts in the last decade: 2007 stands out as the driest reconstructed year, with a high percentage of missing rings in A. concolor. The reconstruction identifies the early twentieth century pluvial as the wettest epoch in the last 353 years in the SSPM. High-elevation tree species in SSPM may be especially well-suited to sensing snowpack-related moisture variations associated with a southerly branched jet stream and the types of weather systems active in the pluvial. Key Points White fir tree rings closely track precipitation in Sierra San Pedro Mártir White fir in Sierra San Pedro Mártir is vulnerable to climate change The early 1900s in Sierra San Pedro Mártir is the wettest period in 353 years

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1660-1673
Number of pages14
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Volume118
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - 2013

Fingerprint

Abies concolor
Lower California (Mexico)
earlywood
Drought
growth rings
tree ring
jet stream
drought
rings
Abies
Linear regression
Climate change
Spectrum analysis
regression analysis
synchrony
snowpack
Moisture
floristics
Calibration
twentieth century

Keywords

  • Dendroclimatology

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Soil Science
  • Forestry
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Palaeontology
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Aquatic Science
  • Ecology

Cite this

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title = "Sierra San Pedro M{\'a}rtir, Baja California, cool-season precipitation reconstructed from earlywood width of Abies concolor tree rings",
abstract = "Tree ring data are analyzed for a multicentury record of drought history in the Sierra San Pedro M{\'a}rtir (SSPM) of Baja California, Mexico. Climatic variation in the study area is of particular interest because the SSPM is a rich biotic environment at the southern limit of the California floristic province and the southern limit of the planetary jet stream. Future shifts in the jet stream would be expected to have amplified effect on this marginal environment. The study applies linear regression to tree ring indices of earlywood-width of Abies concolor to estimate a 353 year (1658-2010 C.E.) record of cool-season (October-April) precipitation, P, in SSPM. Time-nested regression models account for more than half the variance of grid point P in calibration periods of length 50-65 years. Cross-spectral analysis indicates strong tracking of observed P by the reconstruction over a broad range of frequencies. Robustness of the reconstruction is supported by synchrony of reconstructed P with tree ring variations in other tree species from SSPM. The reconstruction emphasizes the severity of the 1950s drought in a long-term context and the single-year intensity of droughts in the last decade: 2007 stands out as the driest reconstructed year, with a high percentage of missing rings in A. concolor. The reconstruction identifies the early twentieth century pluvial as the wettest epoch in the last 353 years in the SSPM. High-elevation tree species in SSPM may be especially well-suited to sensing snowpack-related moisture variations associated with a southerly branched jet stream and the types of weather systems active in the pluvial. Key Points White fir tree rings closely track precipitation in Sierra San Pedro M{\'a}rtir White fir in Sierra San Pedro M{\'a}rtir is vulnerable to climate change The early 1900s in Sierra San Pedro M{\'a}rtir is the wettest period in 353 years",
keywords = "Dendroclimatology",
author = "David Meko and Ramzi Touchan and D{\'i}az, {J. Villanueva} and D. Griffin and Connie Woodhouse and Christopher Castro and C. Carillo and Steven Leavitt",
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T1 - Sierra San Pedro Mártir, Baja California, cool-season precipitation reconstructed from earlywood width of Abies concolor tree rings

AU - Meko, David

AU - Touchan, Ramzi

AU - Díaz, J. Villanueva

AU - Griffin, D.

AU - Woodhouse, Connie

AU - Castro, Christopher

AU - Carillo, C.

AU - Leavitt, Steven

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - Tree ring data are analyzed for a multicentury record of drought history in the Sierra San Pedro Mártir (SSPM) of Baja California, Mexico. Climatic variation in the study area is of particular interest because the SSPM is a rich biotic environment at the southern limit of the California floristic province and the southern limit of the planetary jet stream. Future shifts in the jet stream would be expected to have amplified effect on this marginal environment. The study applies linear regression to tree ring indices of earlywood-width of Abies concolor to estimate a 353 year (1658-2010 C.E.) record of cool-season (October-April) precipitation, P, in SSPM. Time-nested regression models account for more than half the variance of grid point P in calibration periods of length 50-65 years. Cross-spectral analysis indicates strong tracking of observed P by the reconstruction over a broad range of frequencies. Robustness of the reconstruction is supported by synchrony of reconstructed P with tree ring variations in other tree species from SSPM. The reconstruction emphasizes the severity of the 1950s drought in a long-term context and the single-year intensity of droughts in the last decade: 2007 stands out as the driest reconstructed year, with a high percentage of missing rings in A. concolor. The reconstruction identifies the early twentieth century pluvial as the wettest epoch in the last 353 years in the SSPM. High-elevation tree species in SSPM may be especially well-suited to sensing snowpack-related moisture variations associated with a southerly branched jet stream and the types of weather systems active in the pluvial. Key Points White fir tree rings closely track precipitation in Sierra San Pedro Mártir White fir in Sierra San Pedro Mártir is vulnerable to climate change The early 1900s in Sierra San Pedro Mártir is the wettest period in 353 years

AB - Tree ring data are analyzed for a multicentury record of drought history in the Sierra San Pedro Mártir (SSPM) of Baja California, Mexico. Climatic variation in the study area is of particular interest because the SSPM is a rich biotic environment at the southern limit of the California floristic province and the southern limit of the planetary jet stream. Future shifts in the jet stream would be expected to have amplified effect on this marginal environment. The study applies linear regression to tree ring indices of earlywood-width of Abies concolor to estimate a 353 year (1658-2010 C.E.) record of cool-season (October-April) precipitation, P, in SSPM. Time-nested regression models account for more than half the variance of grid point P in calibration periods of length 50-65 years. Cross-spectral analysis indicates strong tracking of observed P by the reconstruction over a broad range of frequencies. Robustness of the reconstruction is supported by synchrony of reconstructed P with tree ring variations in other tree species from SSPM. The reconstruction emphasizes the severity of the 1950s drought in a long-term context and the single-year intensity of droughts in the last decade: 2007 stands out as the driest reconstructed year, with a high percentage of missing rings in A. concolor. The reconstruction identifies the early twentieth century pluvial as the wettest epoch in the last 353 years in the SSPM. High-elevation tree species in SSPM may be especially well-suited to sensing snowpack-related moisture variations associated with a southerly branched jet stream and the types of weather systems active in the pluvial. Key Points White fir tree rings closely track precipitation in Sierra San Pedro Mártir White fir in Sierra San Pedro Mártir is vulnerable to climate change The early 1900s in Sierra San Pedro Mártir is the wettest period in 353 years

KW - Dendroclimatology

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U2 - 10.1002/2013JG002408

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JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics

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