Simple is beautiful: Toward light prediction markets

Weiyun Chen, Xin Li, Daniel D. Zeng

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

This column examines the cognitive load of prediction markets from four steps of user's decision process (that is, timing, pricing, revisiting, and benefit) and discusses how a prediction market mechanism could have a low cognitive load. In the column, the authors propose that fixed-odds betting can be used as a prediction market mechanism with carefully designed event probability estimators. The development of low-cognitive load prediction markets needs the join efforts of computer scientists and economists.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number7111878
Pages (from-to)76-80
Number of pages5
JournalIEEE Intelligent Systems
Volume30
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - May 1 2015

Keywords

  • auction
  • fixed odds
  • intelligent systems
  • posted price
  • prediction market

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Artificial Intelligence

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