Simple is beautiful: Toward light prediction markets

Weiyun Chen; Xin Li; Daniel D. Zeng

doi:10.1109/MIS.2015.54

Simple is beautiful: Toward light prediction markets

Weiyun Chen, Xin Li, Daniel D. Zeng

Management Information Systems

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

This column examines the cognitive load of prediction markets from four steps of user's decision process (that is, timing, pricing, revisiting, and benefit) and discusses how a prediction market mechanism could have a low cognitive load. In the column, the authors propose that fixed-odds betting can be used as a prediction market mechanism with carefully designed event probability estimators. The development of low-cognitive load prediction markets needs the join efforts of computer scientists and economists.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	7111878
Pages (from-to)	76-80
Number of pages	5
Journal	IEEE Intelligent Systems
Volume	30
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/MIS.2015.54
State	Published - May 1 2015

Keywords

auction
fixed odds
intelligent systems
posted price
prediction market

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Computer Networks and Communications
Artificial Intelligence

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