Simple is beautiful: Toward light prediction markets

Weiyun Chen, Xin Li, Dajun Zeng

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This column examines the cognitive load of prediction markets from four steps of user's decision process (that is, timing, pricing, revisiting, and benefit) and discusses how a prediction market mechanism could have a low cognitive load. In the column, the authors propose that fixed-odds betting can be used as a prediction market mechanism with carefully designed event probability estimators. The development of low-cognitive load prediction markets needs the join efforts of computer scientists and economists.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number7111878
Pages (from-to)76-80
Number of pages5
JournalIEEE Intelligent Systems
Volume30
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - May 1 2015

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Keywords

  • auction
  • fixed odds
  • intelligent systems
  • posted price
  • prediction market

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Computer Networks and Communications

Cite this

Simple is beautiful : Toward light prediction markets. / Chen, Weiyun; Li, Xin; Zeng, Dajun.

In: IEEE Intelligent Systems, Vol. 30, No. 3, 7111878, 01.05.2015, p. 76-80.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Chen, Weiyun ; Li, Xin ; Zeng, Dajun. / Simple is beautiful : Toward light prediction markets. In: IEEE Intelligent Systems. 2015 ; Vol. 30, No. 3. pp. 76-80.
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