Abstract
This column examines the cognitive load of prediction markets from four steps of user's decision process (that is, timing, pricing, revisiting, and benefit) and discusses how a prediction market mechanism could have a low cognitive load. In the column, the authors propose that fixed-odds betting can be used as a prediction market mechanism with carefully designed event probability estimators. The development of low-cognitive load prediction markets needs the join efforts of computer scientists and economists.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Article number | 7111878 |
| Pages (from-to) | 76-80 |
| Number of pages | 5 |
| Journal | IEEE Intelligent Systems |
| Volume | 30 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - May 1 2015 |
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Keywords
- auction
- fixed odds
- intelligent systems
- posted price
- prediction market
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Artificial Intelligence
- Computer Networks and Communications
Cite this
Simple is beautiful : Toward light prediction markets. / Chen, Weiyun; Li, Xin; Zeng, Dajun.
In: IEEE Intelligent Systems, Vol. 30, No. 3, 7111878, 01.05.2015, p. 76-80.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Simple is beautiful
T2 - Toward light prediction markets
AU - Chen, Weiyun
AU - Li, Xin
AU - Zeng, Dajun
PY - 2015/5/1
Y1 - 2015/5/1
N2 - This column examines the cognitive load of prediction markets from four steps of user's decision process (that is, timing, pricing, revisiting, and benefit) and discusses how a prediction market mechanism could have a low cognitive load. In the column, the authors propose that fixed-odds betting can be used as a prediction market mechanism with carefully designed event probability estimators. The development of low-cognitive load prediction markets needs the join efforts of computer scientists and economists.
AB - This column examines the cognitive load of prediction markets from four steps of user's decision process (that is, timing, pricing, revisiting, and benefit) and discusses how a prediction market mechanism could have a low cognitive load. In the column, the authors propose that fixed-odds betting can be used as a prediction market mechanism with carefully designed event probability estimators. The development of low-cognitive load prediction markets needs the join efforts of computer scientists and economists.
KW - auction
KW - fixed odds
KW - intelligent systems
KW - posted price
KW - prediction market
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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84930653696&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/MIS.2015.54
DO - 10.1109/MIS.2015.54
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84930653696
VL - 30
SP - 76
EP - 80
JO - IEEE Intelligent Systems
JF - IEEE Intelligent Systems
SN - 1541-1672
IS - 3
M1 - 7111878
ER -