In the current work, a simulation-based approach is proposed to assess the change propagation effect in an aircraft design process. To this end, three extensions are made to the conventional approach using design structure matrix to model change propagation effect. They are: 1) logistics factor associated with the component supplies of aircraft; 2) manufacturing system flexibility factor; 3) uncertainty in design change parameters. Then the effects of change propagation are simulated using a discrete-event simulation model in Arena involving detailed design process of totally eight components of a real aircraft. Finally, what-if analyses are performed by varying logistics and flexibility factors under uncertainty in design change parameters to assess the change propagation effect. An optimization problem is also solved using OptQuest to determine the change propagation path that minimizes the total risk of design change. Future work is discussed for extending the proposed approach to other related areas.