Spatial and spatiotemporal projection pursuit techniques to predict the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones

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Abstract

A multistage projection pursuit (PP) approach is applied to the classification of tropical cyclones (TCs) during extratropical transition (ET) using 500-hPa Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) geopotential height analyses. PP algorithms reduce the dimensionality of the high-dimensional data while minimizing the loss of information that discriminates among classes of ET types. In this paper, a prediction system is developed for ET TC classification and is applied to 85 western North Pacific storms during 1997-2004 using NOGAPS geopotential height analyses to group them as either intensifiers or dissipators. A classification is developed based on the 1997-2002 analyses, and the forecasting performance of the technique is tested on the storms from 2003 and 2004 in two different ways. In the first, the technique is applied at individual times utilizing just spatial information. In the second, the change in spatial patterns with time is taken into account with spatiotemporal algorithms. The preliminary classification results are slightly less accurate than those of NOGAPS but are found to be promising, and further possible improvements are discussed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)418-425
Number of pages8
JournalIEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing
Volume45
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2007

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cyclones
tropical cyclone
navy
projection
geopotential height
geopotential
prediction
predictions
intensifiers
forecasting
dissipation

Keywords

  • Extratropical transition (ET)
  • Projection pursuit (PP)
  • Tropical cyclones (TCs)

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geochemistry and Petrology
  • Geophysics
  • Computers in Earth Sciences
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Cite this

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title = "Spatial and spatiotemporal projection pursuit techniques to predict the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones",
abstract = "A multistage projection pursuit (PP) approach is applied to the classification of tropical cyclones (TCs) during extratropical transition (ET) using 500-hPa Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) geopotential height analyses. PP algorithms reduce the dimensionality of the high-dimensional data while minimizing the loss of information that discriminates among classes of ET types. In this paper, a prediction system is developed for ET TC classification and is applied to 85 western North Pacific storms during 1997-2004 using NOGAPS geopotential height analyses to group them as either intensifiers or dissipators. A classification is developed based on the 1997-2002 analyses, and the forecasting performance of the technique is tested on the storms from 2003 and 2004 in two different ways. In the first, the technique is applied at individual times utilizing just spatial information. In the second, the change in spatial patterns with time is taken into account with spatiotemporal algorithms. The preliminary classification results are slightly less accurate than those of NOGAPS but are found to be promising, and further possible improvements are discussed.",
keywords = "Extratropical transition (ET), Projection pursuit (PP), Tropical cyclones (TCs)",
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AU - Tyo, J Scott

AU - Ritchie, Elizabeth A

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N2 - A multistage projection pursuit (PP) approach is applied to the classification of tropical cyclones (TCs) during extratropical transition (ET) using 500-hPa Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) geopotential height analyses. PP algorithms reduce the dimensionality of the high-dimensional data while minimizing the loss of information that discriminates among classes of ET types. In this paper, a prediction system is developed for ET TC classification and is applied to 85 western North Pacific storms during 1997-2004 using NOGAPS geopotential height analyses to group them as either intensifiers or dissipators. A classification is developed based on the 1997-2002 analyses, and the forecasting performance of the technique is tested on the storms from 2003 and 2004 in two different ways. In the first, the technique is applied at individual times utilizing just spatial information. In the second, the change in spatial patterns with time is taken into account with spatiotemporal algorithms. The preliminary classification results are slightly less accurate than those of NOGAPS but are found to be promising, and further possible improvements are discussed.

AB - A multistage projection pursuit (PP) approach is applied to the classification of tropical cyclones (TCs) during extratropical transition (ET) using 500-hPa Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) geopotential height analyses. PP algorithms reduce the dimensionality of the high-dimensional data while minimizing the loss of information that discriminates among classes of ET types. In this paper, a prediction system is developed for ET TC classification and is applied to 85 western North Pacific storms during 1997-2004 using NOGAPS geopotential height analyses to group them as either intensifiers or dissipators. A classification is developed based on the 1997-2002 analyses, and the forecasting performance of the technique is tested on the storms from 2003 and 2004 in two different ways. In the first, the technique is applied at individual times utilizing just spatial information. In the second, the change in spatial patterns with time is taken into account with spatiotemporal algorithms. The preliminary classification results are slightly less accurate than those of NOGAPS but are found to be promising, and further possible improvements are discussed.

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KW - Projection pursuit (PP)

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