Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Veronika Eyring, Peter M. Cox, Gregory M. Flato, Peter J. Gleckler, Gab Abramowitz, Peter Caldwell, William D. Collins, Bettina K. Gier, Alex D. Hall, Forrest M. Hoffman, George C. Hurtt, Alexandra Jahn, Chris D. Jones, Stephen A. Klein, John P. Krasting, Lester Kwiatkowski, Ruth Lorenz, Eric Maloney, Gerald A. Meehl, Angeline G. PendergrassRobert Pincus, Alex C. Ruane, Joellen Russell, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Benjamin D. Santer, Steven C. Sherwood, Isla R. Simpson, Ronald J. Stouffer, Mark S. Williamson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)102-110
Number of pages9
JournalNature Climate Change
Volume9
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 1 2019

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climate modeling
climate
projection
evaluation
system model
weighting
simulation model
climate change
stakeholder
scenario
regional climate
lack
performance
evidence
simulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
  • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

Cite this

Eyring, V., Cox, P. M., Flato, G. M., Gleckler, P. J., Abramowitz, G., Caldwell, P., ... Williamson, M. S. (2019). Taking climate model evaluation to the next level. Nature Climate Change, 9(2), 102-110. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y

Taking climate model evaluation to the next level. / Eyring, Veronika; Cox, Peter M.; Flato, Gregory M.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Abramowitz, Gab; Caldwell, Peter; Collins, William D.; Gier, Bettina K.; Hall, Alex D.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Hurtt, George C.; Jahn, Alexandra; Jones, Chris D.; Klein, Stephen A.; Krasting, John P.; Kwiatkowski, Lester; Lorenz, Ruth; Maloney, Eric; Meehl, Gerald A.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Pincus, Robert; Ruane, Alex C.; Russell, Joellen; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Sherwood, Steven C.; Simpson, Isla R.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Williamson, Mark S.

In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, No. 2, 01.02.2019, p. 102-110.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Eyring, V, Cox, PM, Flato, GM, Gleckler, PJ, Abramowitz, G, Caldwell, P, Collins, WD, Gier, BK, Hall, AD, Hoffman, FM, Hurtt, GC, Jahn, A, Jones, CD, Klein, SA, Krasting, JP, Kwiatkowski, L, Lorenz, R, Maloney, E, Meehl, GA, Pendergrass, AG, Pincus, R, Ruane, AC, Russell, J, Sanderson, BM, Santer, BD, Sherwood, SC, Simpson, IR, Stouffer, RJ & Williamson, MS 2019, 'Taking climate model evaluation to the next level', Nature Climate Change, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 102-110. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y
Eyring V, Cox PM, Flato GM, Gleckler PJ, Abramowitz G, Caldwell P et al. Taking climate model evaluation to the next level. Nature Climate Change. 2019 Feb 1;9(2):102-110. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y
Eyring, Veronika ; Cox, Peter M. ; Flato, Gregory M. ; Gleckler, Peter J. ; Abramowitz, Gab ; Caldwell, Peter ; Collins, William D. ; Gier, Bettina K. ; Hall, Alex D. ; Hoffman, Forrest M. ; Hurtt, George C. ; Jahn, Alexandra ; Jones, Chris D. ; Klein, Stephen A. ; Krasting, John P. ; Kwiatkowski, Lester ; Lorenz, Ruth ; Maloney, Eric ; Meehl, Gerald A. ; Pendergrass, Angeline G. ; Pincus, Robert ; Ruane, Alex C. ; Russell, Joellen ; Sanderson, Benjamin M. ; Santer, Benjamin D. ; Sherwood, Steven C. ; Simpson, Isla R. ; Stouffer, Ronald J. ; Williamson, Mark S. / Taking climate model evaluation to the next level. In: Nature Climate Change. 2019 ; Vol. 9, No. 2. pp. 102-110.
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