Terrestrial carbon cycle

Climate relations in eight CMIP5 earth system models

Pu Shao, Xubin Zeng, Koichi Sakaguchi, Russell Monson, Xiaodong Zeng

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

49 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Eight Earth System Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated, focusing on both the net carbon dioxide flux and its components and their relation with climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture) in the historical (1850-2005) and representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5; 2006-2100) simulations. While model results differ, their median globally averaged production and respiration terms from 1976 to 2005 agree reasonably with available observation-based products. Disturbances such as land use change are roughly represented but crucial in determining whether the land is a carbon source or sink over many regions in both simulations. While carbon fluxes vary with latitude and between the two simulations, the ratio of net to gross primary production, representing the ecosystem carbon use efficiency, is less dependent on latitude and does not differ significantly in the historical and RCP4.5 simulations. The linear trend of increased land carbon fluxes (except net ecosystem production) is accelerated in the twenty-first century. The cumulative net ecosystem production by 2100 is positive (i.e., carbon sink) in all models and the tropical and boreal latitudes become major carbon sinks in most models. The temporal correlations between annual-mean carbon cycle and climate variables vary substantially (including the change of sign) among the eight models in both the historical and twenty-first-century simulations. The ranges of correlations of carbon cycle variables with precipitation and soil moisture are also quite different, reflecting the important impact of the model treatment of the hydrological cycle on the carbon cycle.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)8744-8764
Number of pages21
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume26
Issue number22
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 2013

Fingerprint

carbon cycle
climate
net ecosystem production
carbon sink
simulation
twenty first century
carbon flux
soil moisture
carbon
hydrological cycle
land use change
CMIP
primary production
respiration
carbon dioxide
disturbance
ecosystem
temperature

Keywords

  • Anthropogenic effects
  • Atmosphere-land interaction
  • Biosphere-atmosphere interaction
  • Carbon cycle
  • Ecological models
  • Model evaluation/performance

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Terrestrial carbon cycle : Climate relations in eight CMIP5 earth system models. / Shao, Pu; Zeng, Xubin; Sakaguchi, Koichi; Monson, Russell; Zeng, Xiaodong.

In: Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, No. 22, 11.2013, p. 8744-8764.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Shao, Pu ; Zeng, Xubin ; Sakaguchi, Koichi ; Monson, Russell ; Zeng, Xiaodong. / Terrestrial carbon cycle : Climate relations in eight CMIP5 earth system models. In: Journal of Climate. 2013 ; Vol. 26, No. 22. pp. 8744-8764.
@article{a868097d641f4864a4c18e72df679b1b,
title = "Terrestrial carbon cycle: Climate relations in eight CMIP5 earth system models",
abstract = "Eight Earth System Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated, focusing on both the net carbon dioxide flux and its components and their relation with climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture) in the historical (1850-2005) and representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5; 2006-2100) simulations. While model results differ, their median globally averaged production and respiration terms from 1976 to 2005 agree reasonably with available observation-based products. Disturbances such as land use change are roughly represented but crucial in determining whether the land is a carbon source or sink over many regions in both simulations. While carbon fluxes vary with latitude and between the two simulations, the ratio of net to gross primary production, representing the ecosystem carbon use efficiency, is less dependent on latitude and does not differ significantly in the historical and RCP4.5 simulations. The linear trend of increased land carbon fluxes (except net ecosystem production) is accelerated in the twenty-first century. The cumulative net ecosystem production by 2100 is positive (i.e., carbon sink) in all models and the tropical and boreal latitudes become major carbon sinks in most models. The temporal correlations between annual-mean carbon cycle and climate variables vary substantially (including the change of sign) among the eight models in both the historical and twenty-first-century simulations. The ranges of correlations of carbon cycle variables with precipitation and soil moisture are also quite different, reflecting the important impact of the model treatment of the hydrological cycle on the carbon cycle.",
keywords = "Anthropogenic effects, Atmosphere-land interaction, Biosphere-atmosphere interaction, Carbon cycle, Ecological models, Model evaluation/performance",
author = "Pu Shao and Xubin Zeng and Koichi Sakaguchi and Russell Monson and Xiaodong Zeng",
year = "2013",
month = "11",
doi = "10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00831.1",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "26",
pages = "8744--8764",
journal = "Journal of Climate",
issn = "0894-8755",
publisher = "American Meteorological Society",
number = "22",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Terrestrial carbon cycle

T2 - Climate relations in eight CMIP5 earth system models

AU - Shao, Pu

AU - Zeng, Xubin

AU - Sakaguchi, Koichi

AU - Monson, Russell

AU - Zeng, Xiaodong

PY - 2013/11

Y1 - 2013/11

N2 - Eight Earth System Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated, focusing on both the net carbon dioxide flux and its components and their relation with climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture) in the historical (1850-2005) and representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5; 2006-2100) simulations. While model results differ, their median globally averaged production and respiration terms from 1976 to 2005 agree reasonably with available observation-based products. Disturbances such as land use change are roughly represented but crucial in determining whether the land is a carbon source or sink over many regions in both simulations. While carbon fluxes vary with latitude and between the two simulations, the ratio of net to gross primary production, representing the ecosystem carbon use efficiency, is less dependent on latitude and does not differ significantly in the historical and RCP4.5 simulations. The linear trend of increased land carbon fluxes (except net ecosystem production) is accelerated in the twenty-first century. The cumulative net ecosystem production by 2100 is positive (i.e., carbon sink) in all models and the tropical and boreal latitudes become major carbon sinks in most models. The temporal correlations between annual-mean carbon cycle and climate variables vary substantially (including the change of sign) among the eight models in both the historical and twenty-first-century simulations. The ranges of correlations of carbon cycle variables with precipitation and soil moisture are also quite different, reflecting the important impact of the model treatment of the hydrological cycle on the carbon cycle.

AB - Eight Earth System Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated, focusing on both the net carbon dioxide flux and its components and their relation with climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture) in the historical (1850-2005) and representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5; 2006-2100) simulations. While model results differ, their median globally averaged production and respiration terms from 1976 to 2005 agree reasonably with available observation-based products. Disturbances such as land use change are roughly represented but crucial in determining whether the land is a carbon source or sink over many regions in both simulations. While carbon fluxes vary with latitude and between the two simulations, the ratio of net to gross primary production, representing the ecosystem carbon use efficiency, is less dependent on latitude and does not differ significantly in the historical and RCP4.5 simulations. The linear trend of increased land carbon fluxes (except net ecosystem production) is accelerated in the twenty-first century. The cumulative net ecosystem production by 2100 is positive (i.e., carbon sink) in all models and the tropical and boreal latitudes become major carbon sinks in most models. The temporal correlations between annual-mean carbon cycle and climate variables vary substantially (including the change of sign) among the eight models in both the historical and twenty-first-century simulations. The ranges of correlations of carbon cycle variables with precipitation and soil moisture are also quite different, reflecting the important impact of the model treatment of the hydrological cycle on the carbon cycle.

KW - Anthropogenic effects

KW - Atmosphere-land interaction

KW - Biosphere-atmosphere interaction

KW - Carbon cycle

KW - Ecological models

KW - Model evaluation/performance

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84888052621&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84888052621&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00831.1

DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00831.1

M3 - Article

VL - 26

SP - 8744

EP - 8764

JO - Journal of Climate

JF - Journal of Climate

SN - 0894-8755

IS - 22

ER -