The European Russia Drought Atlas (1400–2016 CE)

Edward R. Cook, Olga Solomina, Vladimir Matskovsky, Benjamin I. Cook, Leonid Agafonov, Alina Berdnikova, Ekaterina Dolgova, Aleksey Karpukhin, Natallia Knysh, Marina Kulakova, Veronika Kuznetsova, Tomáš Kyncl, Josef Kyncl, Olga Maximova, Irina Panyushkina, Andrea Seim, Denis Tishin, Tomasz Ważny, Maxim Yermokhin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

We present the European Russia Drought Atlas (ERDA) that covers the East European Plain to the Ural Mountains from 1400–2016 CE. Like the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) for the Euro-Mediterranean region, the ERDA is a one-half degree gridded reconstruction of summer Palmer Drought Severity Indices estimated from a network of annual tree-ring chronologies. Ensemble point-by-point regression is used to generate the ERDA with the identical protocols used for developing the OWDA. Split calibration/validation tests of the ERDA indicate that it has significant skill over most of its domain and is much more skillful than the OWDA where they overlap in the western part of ERDA domain. Comparisons to historical droughts over European Russia additionally support the ERDA’s overall validity. The ERDA has been spatially smoothed and infilled using a local regression method to yield a spatially complete drought atlas back to 1400 CE. EOF analysis indicates that there are three principal modes of hydroclimatic variability in the ERDA. After Varimax rotation, these modes correlate significantly with independent climate data sets extending back to the late nineteenth century in a physically interpretable way and relate to atmospheric circulation dynamics of droughts and heatwaves over European Russia based on more recent instrumental data.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2317-2335
Number of pages19
JournalClimate Dynamics
Volume54
Issue number3-4
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 1 2020

Keywords

  • Drought atlas
  • Droughts and heat waves
  • East European plain
  • European Russia
  • Tree-ring network

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

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    Cook, E. R., Solomina, O., Matskovsky, V., Cook, B. I., Agafonov, L., Berdnikova, A., Dolgova, E., Karpukhin, A., Knysh, N., Kulakova, M., Kuznetsova, V., Kyncl, T., Kyncl, J., Maximova, O., Panyushkina, I., Seim, A., Tishin, D., Ważny, T., & Yermokhin, M. (2020). The European Russia Drought Atlas (1400–2016 CE). Climate Dynamics, 54(3-4), 2317-2335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05115-2