The impact of initial condition uncertainty on numerical simulations of large-scale explosive cyclogenesis

S. L. Mullen, D. P. Baumhefner

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34 Scopus citations


Compared to the control simulations, the inclusion of initial error produces a composite cyclone with maximum deepening rate that is slightly reduced and a 24 h period of most rapid deepening that is somewhat delayed. The absolute position error in the surface cyclone is approximately 100 km the first +36 h of the forecast then abruptly increases to 300 km by +48 h. We estimate that, on the average, the forecast error due to initial condition uncertainty is as large as that due to the modeling error associated with today's best operational models, whereas five years ago modeling error was much more important. Short-range forecasts of explosive cyclogenesis are much more sensitive to initial error than those for ordinary flows. -from Authors

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2800-2821
Number of pages22
JournalMonthly Weather Review
Issue number12
StatePublished - Jan 1 1989


ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

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