Abstract
Why are some locations more attractive targets for transnational terrorism than others? Remarkably little is known about the local-level conditions and attributes that determine precisely where transnational terror attacks occur within targeted countries. To date, quantitative terrorism research identifies country- or region-level correlates of terrorism, neglecting possible local factors. In this study, we posit five local-level factors that increase the likelihood of a terror attack: security of a target, accessibility, symbolism, material harm, and exclusion. Using a variety of estimation strategies, including multilevel, negative binomial, and propensity score matching models, we regress new sub-national geographically coded transnational terrorism data on various sub-national measures that might theoretically increase the likelihood of a terror attack. The results demonstrate that although country- and region-level factors matter, numerous local-level conditions, including where civil violence occurs, sub-national economic activity, and proximity to capitals and urban areas, are equally, if not more, important. The results help to substantiate the analytical benefits of adopting the sub-national level of analysis in the study of transnational terrorism.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Journal | Conflict Management and Peace Science |
| DOIs | |
| State | Accepted/In press - Jan 1 2018 |
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Keywords
- Geocoding
- matching
- multilevel modeling
- transnational terrorism
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Economics and Econometrics
- Political Science and International Relations
Cite this
The local geography of transnational terrorism. / Marineau, Josiah; Pascoe, Henry; Braithwaite, Alex R; Findley, Michael; Young, Joseph.
In: Conflict Management and Peace Science, 01.01.2018.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - The local geography of transnational terrorism
AU - Marineau, Josiah
AU - Pascoe, Henry
AU - Braithwaite, Alex R
AU - Findley, Michael
AU - Young, Joseph
PY - 2018/1/1
Y1 - 2018/1/1
N2 - Why are some locations more attractive targets for transnational terrorism than others? Remarkably little is known about the local-level conditions and attributes that determine precisely where transnational terror attacks occur within targeted countries. To date, quantitative terrorism research identifies country- or region-level correlates of terrorism, neglecting possible local factors. In this study, we posit five local-level factors that increase the likelihood of a terror attack: security of a target, accessibility, symbolism, material harm, and exclusion. Using a variety of estimation strategies, including multilevel, negative binomial, and propensity score matching models, we regress new sub-national geographically coded transnational terrorism data on various sub-national measures that might theoretically increase the likelihood of a terror attack. The results demonstrate that although country- and region-level factors matter, numerous local-level conditions, including where civil violence occurs, sub-national economic activity, and proximity to capitals and urban areas, are equally, if not more, important. The results help to substantiate the analytical benefits of adopting the sub-national level of analysis in the study of transnational terrorism.
AB - Why are some locations more attractive targets for transnational terrorism than others? Remarkably little is known about the local-level conditions and attributes that determine precisely where transnational terror attacks occur within targeted countries. To date, quantitative terrorism research identifies country- or region-level correlates of terrorism, neglecting possible local factors. In this study, we posit five local-level factors that increase the likelihood of a terror attack: security of a target, accessibility, symbolism, material harm, and exclusion. Using a variety of estimation strategies, including multilevel, negative binomial, and propensity score matching models, we regress new sub-national geographically coded transnational terrorism data on various sub-national measures that might theoretically increase the likelihood of a terror attack. The results demonstrate that although country- and region-level factors matter, numerous local-level conditions, including where civil violence occurs, sub-national economic activity, and proximity to capitals and urban areas, are equally, if not more, important. The results help to substantiate the analytical benefits of adopting the sub-national level of analysis in the study of transnational terrorism.
KW - Geocoding
KW - matching
KW - multilevel modeling
KW - transnational terrorism
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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85058848340&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/0738894218789356
DO - 10.1177/0738894218789356
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85058848340
JO - Conflict Management and Peace Science
JF - Conflict Management and Peace Science
SN - 0738-8942
ER -