Abstract
Why are some locations more attractive targets for transnational terrorism than others? Remarkably little is known about the local-level conditions and attributes that determine precisely where transnational terror attacks occur within targeted countries. To date, quantitative terrorism research identifies country- or region-level correlates of terrorism, neglecting possible local factors. In this study, we posit five local-level factors that increase the likelihood of a terror attack: security of a target, accessibility, symbolism, material harm, and exclusion. Using a variety of estimation strategies, including multilevel, negative binomial, and propensity score matching models, we regress new sub-national geographically coded transnational terrorism data on various sub-national measures that might theoretically increase the likelihood of a terror attack. The results demonstrate that although country- and region-level factors matter, numerous local-level conditions, including where civil violence occurs, sub-national economic activity, and proximity to capitals and urban areas, are equally, if not more, important. The results help to substantiate the analytical benefits of adopting the sub-national level of analysis in the study of transnational terrorism.
Original language | English (US) |
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Pages (from-to) | 350-381 |
Number of pages | 32 |
Journal | Conflict Management and Peace Science |
Volume | 37 |
Issue number | 3 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - May 1 2020 |
Keywords
- Geocoding
- matching
- multilevel modeling
- transnational terrorism
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Economics and Econometrics
- Political Science and International Relations