Tropical-north pacific climate linkages over the past four centuries

Rosanne D'Arrigo, Rob Wilson, Clara Deser, Gregory Wiles, Edward Cook, Ricardo Villalba, Alexander Tudhope, Julia Cole, Braddock Linsley

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

Analyses of instrumental data demonstrate robust linkages between decadal-scale North Pacific and tropical Indo-Pacific climatic variability. These linkages encompass common regime shifts, including the noteworthy 1976 transition in Pacific climate. However, information on Pacific decadal variability and the tropical high-latitude climate connection is limited prior to the twentieth century. Herein tree-ring analysis is employed to extend the understanding of North Pacific climatic variability and related tropical linkages over the past four centuries. To this end, a tree-ring reconstruction of the December-May North Pacific index (NPI) - an index of the atmospheric circulation related to the Aleutian low pressure cell - is presented (1600-1983). The NPI reconstruction shows evidence for the three regime shifts seen in the instrumental NPI data, and for seven events in prior centuries. It correlates significantly with both instrumental tropical climate indices and a coral-based reconstruction of an optimal tropical Indo-Pacific climate index, supporting evidence for a tropical-North Pacific link extending as far west as the western Indian Ocean. The coral-based reconstruction (1781-1993) shows the twentieth-century regime shifts evident in the instrumental NPI and instrumental tropical Indo-Pacific climate index, and three previous shifts. Changes in the strength of correlation between the reconstructions over time, and the different identified shifts in both series prior to the twentieth century, suggest a varying tropical influence on North Pacific climate, with greater influence in the twentieth century. One likely mechanism is the low-frequency variability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its varying impact on Indo-Pacific climate.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)5253-5265
Number of pages13
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume18
Issue number24
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 15 2005

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climate
twentieth century
tree ring
coral
index
Southern Oscillation
atmospheric circulation
low pressure

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

D'Arrigo, R., Wilson, R., Deser, C., Wiles, G., Cook, E., Villalba, R., ... Linsley, B. (2005). Tropical-north pacific climate linkages over the past four centuries. Journal of Climate, 18(24), 5253-5265. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3602.1

Tropical-north pacific climate linkages over the past four centuries. / D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Wilson, Rob; Deser, Clara; Wiles, Gregory; Cook, Edward; Villalba, Ricardo; Tudhope, Alexander; Cole, Julia; Linsley, Braddock.

In: Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, No. 24, 15.12.2005, p. 5253-5265.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

D'Arrigo, R, Wilson, R, Deser, C, Wiles, G, Cook, E, Villalba, R, Tudhope, A, Cole, J & Linsley, B 2005, 'Tropical-north pacific climate linkages over the past four centuries', Journal of Climate, vol. 18, no. 24, pp. 5253-5265. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3602.1
D'Arrigo R, Wilson R, Deser C, Wiles G, Cook E, Villalba R et al. Tropical-north pacific climate linkages over the past four centuries. Journal of Climate. 2005 Dec 15;18(24):5253-5265. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3602.1
D'Arrigo, Rosanne ; Wilson, Rob ; Deser, Clara ; Wiles, Gregory ; Cook, Edward ; Villalba, Ricardo ; Tudhope, Alexander ; Cole, Julia ; Linsley, Braddock. / Tropical-north pacific climate linkages over the past four centuries. In: Journal of Climate. 2005 ; Vol. 18, No. 24. pp. 5253-5265.
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