Using a two-dimensional watershed model to estimate flood magnitude and frequency under changing climate

Yang Bai, Guohong Duan

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

A two-dimensional physical based hydrodynamic watershed model, HydroSed2D, was used to estimate the impact of climate change on flood magnitude and frequency in the Upper Santa Cruz River Watershed (USCRW) in the Southern Arizona. Hourly precipitation data from a Regional Climate Model (RCM), Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), for three periods, 1990-2000, 2031-2040 and 2071-2079, were used to quantify the impact of climate change on flood. Precipitation outputs from RCM-WRF model were bias-corrected using observed gridded precipitation data for three periods before directly used in the watershed model. The calibrated watershed model was applied to USCRW for simulating surface flow routing for the selected three periods. Simulated discharges are analyzed to obtain future flood magnitude and frequency curves. Results indicate that flood discharges for different return periods are increased: the discharges of 100-year and 200-year return period are increased by 3,000 and 4,000 cfs, respectively.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2015: Floods, Droughts, and Ecosystems - Proceedings of the 2015 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress
PublisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Pages1163-1172
Number of pages10
ISBN (Print)9780784479162
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015
EventWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2015: Floods, Droughts, and Ecosystems - Austin, United States
Duration: May 17 2015May 21 2015

Other

OtherWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2015: Floods, Droughts, and Ecosystems
CountryUnited States
CityAustin
Period5/17/155/21/15

Keywords

  • climate change
  • flood frequency
  • flood intensity
  • watershed model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology

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  • Cite this

    Bai, Y., & Duan, G. (2015). Using a two-dimensional watershed model to estimate flood magnitude and frequency under changing climate. In World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2015: Floods, Droughts, and Ecosystems - Proceedings of the 2015 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress (pp. 1163-1172). American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784479162.115