Water resources vulnerability to climate change in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona

Evlon Shamir, Carlos Carrillo, Christopher Castro, Hsin I. Chang, Sharon B Megdal, Susanna - Eden, Jacob Prietto

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

In the Upper Santa Cruz River episodic streamflow events recharge a shallow alluvial aquifer, which is an essential water resource for the City of Nogales and surrounding communities. The complex natural variability of the rainfall-driven streamflow events introduces a water resources management challenge for the region. In this study, we assess the climate change projections of precipitation for the Upper Santa Cruz River from eight dynamically downscaled IPCC Global Circulation Models. Two models from the University of Arizona are downscaled simulations of carefully selected high performing Global Circulation Models for the region, and the other six are selected NARCCAP simulations. Our analysis of the eight selected dynamically downscaled climate model projections indicated an increase (decrease) frequency of occurrence of dry (wet) summers. The winter rainfall projections indicated an increase frequency of occurrence of both dry and wet winter seasons, which implies lower chance for a medium winter. The projected drying summers and increased winter inter-annual variability are expected to further complicate the water resources management task.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings - 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software: Bold Visions for Environmental Modeling, iEMSs 2014
PublisherInternational Environmental Modelling and Software Society
Pages1599-1606
Number of pages8
Volume3
StatePublished - 2014
Event7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, iEMSs 2014 - San Diego, United States
Duration: Jun 15 2014Jun 19 2014

Other

Other7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, iEMSs 2014
CountryUnited States
CitySan Diego
Period6/15/146/19/14

Fingerprint

Water Resources
Climate Change
Water resources
Vulnerability
Climate change
Water Management
Rivers
Projection
Rainfall
Resource Management
Rain
Climate models
Climate Models
Event-driven
Precipitation (meteorology)
Drying
Aquifers
Annual
Simulation
Model

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Ephemeral streams
  • NARCCAP
  • Santa Cruz River
  • Water resources management

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Software
  • Environmental Engineering
  • Modeling and Simulation

Cite this

Shamir, E., Carrillo, C., Castro, C., Chang, H. I., Megdal, S. B., Eden, S. ., & Prietto, J. (2014). Water resources vulnerability to climate change in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona. In Proceedings - 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software: Bold Visions for Environmental Modeling, iEMSs 2014 (Vol. 3, pp. 1599-1606). International Environmental Modelling and Software Society.

Water resources vulnerability to climate change in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona. / Shamir, Evlon; Carrillo, Carlos; Castro, Christopher; Chang, Hsin I.; Megdal, Sharon B; Eden, Susanna -; Prietto, Jacob.

Proceedings - 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software: Bold Visions for Environmental Modeling, iEMSs 2014. Vol. 3 International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, 2014. p. 1599-1606.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Shamir, E, Carrillo, C, Castro, C, Chang, HI, Megdal, SB, Eden, S & Prietto, J 2014, Water resources vulnerability to climate change in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona. in Proceedings - 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software: Bold Visions for Environmental Modeling, iEMSs 2014. vol. 3, International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, pp. 1599-1606, 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, iEMSs 2014, San Diego, United States, 6/15/14.
Shamir E, Carrillo C, Castro C, Chang HI, Megdal SB, Eden S et al. Water resources vulnerability to climate change in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona. In Proceedings - 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software: Bold Visions for Environmental Modeling, iEMSs 2014. Vol. 3. International Environmental Modelling and Software Society. 2014. p. 1599-1606
Shamir, Evlon ; Carrillo, Carlos ; Castro, Christopher ; Chang, Hsin I. ; Megdal, Sharon B ; Eden, Susanna - ; Prietto, Jacob. / Water resources vulnerability to climate change in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona. Proceedings - 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software: Bold Visions for Environmental Modeling, iEMSs 2014. Vol. 3 International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, 2014. pp. 1599-1606
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